CNN-- Bashar al-Assad's regime has lost control of
much of Syria's long desert border with Iraq, as Sunni jihadist groups
in both countries grow in strength, according to Western
counter-terrorism officials and analysts.
The resurgence of al
Qaeda in Iraq and the growing power of groups like the Nusra Front in
Syria pose a broader threat: a cross-border alliance of militant Sunni
groups capable of challenging governments in both Damascus and Baghdad
and carving out a haven in a region where governments are struggling to
exert control.
Last week, militants
attacked a convoy of Syrian troops inside Iraq. According to some
reports, the troops had entered Iraq for medical treatment. But the al
Qaeda-affiliated Islamic State in Iraq, or ISI, claimed the Syrian
soldiers had fled operations by "the brothers" in Syria. They were then
ambushed near Akashat in Iraq's Anbar province as they were being
escorted by Iraqi forces to the only border post the Syrian regime still
controlled.
At least 40 Syrians and several Iraqis guarding them were killed in the ambush,
which the ISI reported in distinctly sectarian terms, speaking of the
"blood of the filthy ones from the Rafidah (Shiites)," in a statement
issued to jihadist websites.
According to the ISI
statement, the Syrian troops fled into northern Iraq after being forced
to abandon a border crossing at al-Yarabiyah, a town at the northern end
of the border that in more settled times saw scores of trucks pass to
and from Iraq every day.
The Nusra Front began
attacking a military base in al-Yarabiyah with mortars in late February,
claiming that those who weren't killed "withdrew to the inside of the
Iraqi borders," according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence
Group.
The Free Syrian Army,
which sometimes collaborates with the Nusra Front, said its forces were
also involved in the attack, and several had been killed when Iraqi
forces came to the aid of the besieged Syrian garrison.
According to Joseph
Holliday at the Institute for the Study of War, recent events suggest
not only growing coordination between al Qaeda and the Nusra Front, but a
perilous situation along the border for the Assad regime.
"With three of four
border crossing points impassible due to rebel gains in Syria, the Al
Walid-At Tanf border crossing will be critical for the Assad regime and
the Iraqi government to secure if they hope to maintain a ground line of
supply between Baghdad and Damascus," Holliday says.
The Assad regime
withdrew forces from a largely Kurdish area in northeast Syria last
summer, weakening its control of the frontier in that area. In
September, rebels seized the main crossing on the Euphrates River.
Should the last crossing along the more than 600-kilometer (375-mile)
border become insecure, Iranian efforts to reinforce the Assad regime
would be hampered. Iran is al-Assad's main regional backer, while Iraq
has expressed neutrality on the Syrian civil war.
Holliday says he
believes the Iraqi and Syrian governments will be able to retain control
of this last overland route, but if not, " the Assad regime will have
to rely on air and sea resupply routes in order to continue its campaign
against the opposition in Syria."
The Wall Street Journal
reported Tuesday that in response to the deteriorating situation along
the border, the Obama administration had authorized the CIA to step up
cooperation with Iraq.
The newspaper reported:
"In a series of secret decisions from 2011 to late 2012, the White House
directed the CIA to provide support to Iraq's Counterterrorism Service,
or CTS, a force that reports directly to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki, officials said."
Last week, a senior
Iraqi official visiting Washington estimated that about 300 militants
are crossing from Iraq into Syria every month, accusing the Gulf emirate
of Qatar of helping finance the Nusra Front.
And on Tuesday, U.S.
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper warned that the Nusra
Front has "gained strength" in Syria. He said the group had been
"astute," providing humanitarian services to win over the population
while bringing in foreign fighters.
Sunnis in northern Iraq
have staged a number of protests in recent weeks against the central
government, which is dominated by a coalition of Shia parties led by
al-Maliki. Faleh al Fayad, Iraq's national security adviser, told al
Monitor newspaper last week that "events in Syria have taken on a
sectarian dimension, which will certainly influence Iraq due to the
country's diverse sectarian composition."
At the same time, Fayad
acknowledged that the "Iraqi security apparatus still suffers from the
technical void left behind by the Americans."
The U.S. State
Department has already asserted close links between the Nusra Front and
al Qaeda in Iraq, as the ISI is also sometimes known. In December, it
designated al Nusra as an alias for the group, saying al Nusra "has
sought to portray itself as part of the legitimate Syrian opposition
while it is, in fact, an attempt by AQI to hijack the struggles of the
Syrian people for its own malign purposes. AQI emir Abu Du'a is in
control of both AQI and al-Nusra."
Nada Bakos, a former CIA
agent, told CNN in January that Syrians were among the inner circle of
al Qaeda in Iraq when it was led by the Jordanian Abu Musab al Zarqawi.
Bakos, who was the chief
targeting officer tracking Zarqawi, said: "Some of these commanders are
probably now part of al-Nusra," and the two groups are likely to
replicating the flexible and resilient networks he established. That
makes them a force to be reckoned with, she believes.
An analysis published by
the Quilliam Foundation in January also found that the Nusra Front is
led by veterans of the Iraqi insurgency. Indeed, the Assad regime's
tolerance of militant groups using Syrian soil as a conduit to supply
the militant groups in Iraq may well be returning to haunt it.
Zarqawi built up an
infrastructure in Syria, establishing safe houses in Syria from which
thousands of volunteers -- including many Syrians -- traveled to fight
in Iraq. The group's Syrian commanders were also the key channel for
financial contributions from the Saudi and Gulf region, according to the
Quilliam Foundation.
Under Abu Du'a's
leadership, the ISI has stepped up sectarian attacks against Shiite
targets in Baghdad and elsewhere with a series of suicide bombings and
assassinations.
Analysts believe the
Nusra Front's hostility to the West could create an "over-the-horizon"
threat to the United States and its allies if the group is able to
secure a foothold in Syria and across the Levant.
In such a scenario, al
Qaeda-aligned groups would operate close to Arab borders with Israel,
improving their potential to launch a direct attack against the country,
long an objective of Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's current leader.
By: Tim Lister, CNN
